All 32 teams will take the field each of the next four weeks to finish up the regular season. Bye weeks are over, so every team will physically be there, but we’ll see how many teams are mentally and emotionally invested. Players are coming to terms with their situations, as some are in the throes of a playoff race, others are not, and planning for the future has begun.
We have some marquee games this week that will draw a lot of attention and other games that won’t draw nearly as many bets or eyeballs, but every game deserves some consideration and analysis. That’s what I’ve done and found some things I like.
.
A big game in the AFC Playoff picture brings Miami and Houston together. The Texans still control their destiny in the AFC South and the Dolphins need a lot of help to get into the postseason as a wild card. Miami’s been good to me lately by taking care of business against bad teams, although they had their hands full with the Jets last week.
The Texans are not a bad team. They have a top-five defense by EPA over the last five weeks, which should slow down Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami offense. I’m also looking at a Miami defense that gets virtually no pressure. They rank in the bottom 10 in Pressure% per Pro-Football-Reference and are tied for the second-fewest sacks.
The Texans have had major offensive line issues all season long, but I don’t think those are quite as big of a factor here. Even with some weak offenses recently, the Dolphins defense ranks 23rd in Dropback Success Rate against. This is an opportunity for CJ Stroud to get it going a little bit.
Pick: Texans -3
The Seahawks get to engage the 12th Man with a home game on Sunday Night Football this week against the Packers. Seattle is the best defense in the NFL over the last five weeks, which does include their bye, but it is clear that Mike Macdonald, who was a wunderkind on that side of the ball with stops at Michigan and with the Baltimore Ravens, has absolutely put his stamp on this defense.
The Packers are a quality offensive team and this will be a good test for Seattle’s defense, but I find Green Bay and Jordan Love a bit overrated. Love has a 48.8% Success Rate on dropbacks this season, which ranks 15th in the NFL. His EPA + CPOE Composite (Expected Points Added + Completion Percentage Over Expected) ranks 11th. And now he’s getting a really good defense on the road in a tough environment.
For what it’s worth, Geno Smith ranks 16th in EPA + CPOE Composite, so he’s really not that far behind and obviously has a very talented cast of skill players.
Since the bye week, the Packers have fallen short of 400 yards in four straight games, even though they’ve scored 30+ points in three of them. That strikes me as a team in line for some regression, especially when running into a really stout defense. The Packers were held to 298 yards last week by the Lions and I could see Seattle doing something similar.
Pick: Seahawks +3
We have some marquee games this week that will draw a lot of attention and other games that won’t draw nearly as many bets or eyeballs, but every game deserves some consideration and analysis. That’s what I’ve done and found some things I like.
.
Week 15 NFL bets:
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12/11, 3:00 p.m. PTMiami Dolphins at Houston Texans (-3, 47)
1 p.m. ETA big game in the AFC Playoff picture brings Miami and Houston together. The Texans still control their destiny in the AFC South and the Dolphins need a lot of help to get into the postseason as a wild card. Miami’s been good to me lately by taking care of business against bad teams, although they had their hands full with the Jets last week.
The Texans are not a bad team. They have a top-five defense by EPA over the last five weeks, which should slow down Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami offense. I’m also looking at a Miami defense that gets virtually no pressure. They rank in the bottom 10 in Pressure% per Pro-Football-Reference and are tied for the second-fewest sacks.
The Texans have had major offensive line issues all season long, but I don’t think those are quite as big of a factor here. Even with some weak offenses recently, the Dolphins defense ranks 23rd in Dropback Success Rate against. This is an opportunity for CJ Stroud to get it going a little bit.
Pick: Texans -3
Green Bay Packers (-3, 46) at Seattle Seahawks
8:20 p.m. ETThe Seahawks get to engage the 12th Man with a home game on Sunday Night Football this week against the Packers. Seattle is the best defense in the NFL over the last five weeks, which does include their bye, but it is clear that Mike Macdonald, who was a wunderkind on that side of the ball with stops at Michigan and with the Baltimore Ravens, has absolutely put his stamp on this defense.
The Packers are a quality offensive team and this will be a good test for Seattle’s defense, but I find Green Bay and Jordan Love a bit overrated. Love has a 48.8% Success Rate on dropbacks this season, which ranks 15th in the NFL. His EPA + CPOE Composite (Expected Points Added + Completion Percentage Over Expected) ranks 11th. And now he’s getting a really good defense on the road in a tough environment.
For what it’s worth, Geno Smith ranks 16th in EPA + CPOE Composite, so he’s really not that far behind and obviously has a very talented cast of skill players.
Since the bye week, the Packers have fallen short of 400 yards in four straight games, even though they’ve scored 30+ points in three of them. That strikes me as a team in line for some regression, especially when running into a really stout defense. The Packers were held to 298 yards last week by the Lions and I could see Seattle doing something similar.
Pick: Seahawks +3
